WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (PABUK) WARNING 
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.1N 111.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 272 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST EAST OF VIETNAM, THAT CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE AS THE DISORGANIZED MAIN CONVECTION IS SHEARED NORTHWARD, 
FULLY EXPOSING A RAGGED AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY 
EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED EIR CONVECTIVE 
SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH 
VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS DPRNT: 31 KTS AT 241730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD PABUK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE WEST.
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE MAINLY DUE TO HIGH
VWS AND LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36,
POSSIBLY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 103NM BY TAU 36; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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