WDXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.1S 56.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 02S WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 02S IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (40-45 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL (25-26 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 211740Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWING 35-40 KNOT
WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 211900Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 211900Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 211900Z
   

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 40-45 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: RESTARTED WARNINGS DUE TO HIGHER
INTENSITY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 02S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AIR
AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTING ON THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET MAX
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL ENABLE A SLOWER
WEAKENING TREND. AS A RESULT, 02S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AROUND TAU 48. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL RIP THE VORTEX APART SOONER THAN TAU 48 AS
02S MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD THOUGH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF 02S WITH A 71 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 02S WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24
DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THEN CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
THEREAFTER WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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