WDXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.1S 62.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 300 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN STRIPPED OF ALL DEEP CONVECTION, FULLY EXPOSING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC THAT
LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH THE BULLSEYE IN THE 190430Z ASCAT DIRECT
PASS THAT HAD MAXIMUM OF 45-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY
DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE RAPID
CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25+ KTS) WESTERLY VWS, COOL (25-26C) SST, AND 
DRY AIR INTRUSION ONLY SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 200235Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 200300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25+ KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC BHEKI WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR RECEDES, PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF MAURITIUS AND LA
REUNION AFTER TAU 12. THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE GRADUAL DECAY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY
SOONER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 82NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EARLY
DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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