WDXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 65.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 457 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE IN A 191357Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. A 191730Z ASCAST-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
REVEALED THAT THE VORTEX, ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY TILTED
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT, IS RELATIVELY UPRIGHT DESPITE THE 30 KT
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THAT MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST IS BEING APPLIED BY
THE ENVIRONMENT. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS ALSO SEEN EXPANDING
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN THE UPSHEAR DIRECTION. SATELLITE-BASED
SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGESTS THAT THE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUE MAY BE A BIT LOWER AT AROUND 20 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 191358Z
   CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 191800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-30 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND WEST

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH THE VORTEX NOT YET TILTING
TO A DESTRUCTIVE DEGREE. AS LONG AS THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE HOLDS
TOGETHER AND THE VORTEX REMAINS RELATIVELY UPRIGHT, WEAKENING WILL
BE SLOW. HOWEVER, MODELS UNIVERSALLY AGREE THAT THE STORM WILL SOON
SUCCUMB TO STILL INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF A
DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND WEST, LEADING TO IMMINENT
DECOUPLING OF THE VORTEX IN MOST NUMERICAL MODEL SIMULATIONS. THIS
PROCESS APPEARS TO BE DELAYED RELATIVE TO MODEL EXPECTATIONS, BUT
THE JTWC FORECAST ASSUMES DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR IN THE NEAR FUTURE,
RESULTING IN STEADY WEAKENING TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 72
HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS BHEKI IS
GUIDED WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. A TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE JTWC
FORECAST BRINGS BHEKI JUST SOUTH OF MAURITIUS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO NEAR THE
MEAN OF THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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