WDXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.0S 67.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 564 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CLOUD COVER THAT HAS
FORMED A RAGGED 20 BY 28 NM OBLONG EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY  DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VENTILATION OFFSET BY COOL WATERS AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 73 KTS AT 190124Z
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 190300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STR TO THE SOUTH UP TO TAU 48, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
ROUND THE WESTERN RIM OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOL (25-26C) SST, OFFSET ONLY
BY THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AFTER IT PASSES LA REUNION. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 190NM BY TAU 72, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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