WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.5N 129.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 503 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
                         PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 47 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 25W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (RI) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS 
FROM 55 KNOTS AT 141200Z TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN OBLONG EYE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
CONCURRENT AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 108 KTS AT 151036Z
   CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 150830Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 91 KTS AT 150830Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 99 KTS AT 150956Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 96 KTS AT 151100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, INTENSIFYING 
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL 
NEAR TAU 42, TY 25W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LUZON. AFTER 
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND STRONG 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE TURNING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE 150600Z EPS (ECMWF) ENSEMBLE AND THE 150000Z
GEFS (GFS) ENSEMBLE REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF CASIGURAN. AFTER TAU
72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY, WITH SOLUTIONS SPREADING FROM
SOUTHEAST VIETNAM TO HAINAN ISLAND. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 75NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY, PRIMARILY
RELATING TO TRACK SPEEDS, WITH A 135NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
120. THE 150000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INTENSITY PROBABILITY
CHART INDICATES PEAK RI PROBABILITIES OF 40-50 PERCENT THROUGH TAU
24, DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 20 PERCENT BY TAU 36. CTCXEPS ALSO
SHOWS AN 70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A STRONG TYPHOON (100-129
KNOTS) FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48. HAFS-A ALSO SUPPORTS THE RI PHASE
AND INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS AT TAU 24.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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