WDXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.8S 75.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BHEKI) WITH PERSISTENT AND FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE ASSESSED CENTER, COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
QUADRANTS AIDING IN THE CONTINUED AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF TC 02S.
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED, OFFSETTING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWING CYCLONICALLY TURNING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES DIRECTLY OVER A
POTENTIAL FORMING EYE-FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 150028Z RCM-1 SAR WINDSPEED IMAGE
INDICATING A SWATH OF 65 KTS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DIRECTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 150630Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 54 KTS AT 150630Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 70 KTS AT 150630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE EAST. DURING THIS PERIOD,
AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL
AID IN THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT JUST BEFORE TAU 72 NEAR THE STR AXIS.
AT TAU 72, A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH REGARD TO FORECASTED INTENSITY, TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 65 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
NORTHEAST VWS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SSTS) DURING THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. AFTER TAU 36 AND WHILE TC 02S STARTS TO NEAR THE STR AXIS, 
DECREASING VWS AND ENHANCED POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN 
TO AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM UP TO 90 KTS BY TAU 72. 
FOLLOWING TAU 72, INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VWS ABOVE 20 KTS, COOLER 
SSTS BELOW 26 C, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL BEGIN ERODING TC BHEKI, 
WEAKENING INTENSITIES TO 65 KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR TC 02S, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 95 NM BY
TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 223 NM AS
INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST STR
VARIES BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL INTENSITY SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
INTENSITIES TO A POTENTIAL WINDOW OF SLIGHT WEAKENING WITHIN THE
INITIAL 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND DRY
AIR. FOLLOWING TAU 24, THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL TAU 72,
WITH A WEAKENING PHASE THEREAFTER, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY
PRODUCT ILLUSTRATES STEADY INTENSITIES THROUGH THE 120 FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH LESS THAN A 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 78. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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