WDPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.9N 130.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 593 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 25W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (RI) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS 
FROM 50 KNOTS AT 140600Z TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBLONG 
EYEWALL SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING 
OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY 
FAVORABLE WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. A 150455Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE 
INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 92 KNOTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE), WHICH 
CONVERTS TO 99 KNOTS (1-MINUTE AVERAGE). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD 
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, SUPPORTED BY THE AMSR2 DATA AND RANGE 
OF CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 83 KTS AT 150023Z
   CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 150530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 85 KTS AT 150530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 86 KTS AT 150457Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 91 KTS AT 150600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, INTENSIFYING 
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS AT TAU 24. THEN MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 
TAU 48, WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION. COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PEAK INTENSITY 
COULD SUSTAIN PAST TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LUZON, PERHAPS 
REACHING SUPERTYPHOON STRENGTH BRIEFLY. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL 
ENCOUNTER EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL 
QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.      

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE 141800Z EPS (ECMWF) ENSEMBLE AND THE 150000Z
GEFS (GFS) ENSEMBLE REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF CASIGURAN. AFTER TAU
72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY, WITH SOLUTIONS SPREADING FROM
SOUTHEAST VIETNAM TO HAINAN ISLAND. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH AN 80NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY, PRIMARILY
RELATING TO TRACK SPEEDS, WITH A 120NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
120. THE 150000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INTENSITY PROBABILITY
CHART INDICATES PEAK RI PROBABILITIES OF 40-50 PERCENT THROUGH TAU
24, DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 20 PERCENT BY TAU 36. CTCXEPS ALSO
SHOWS AN 70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A STRONG TYPHOON (100-129
KNOTS) FROM TAU 30 TO TAU 48. HAFS-A ALSO SUPPORTS THE RI PHASE AND
INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS AT TAU 24. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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