WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.5N 132.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 689 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS INDICATED BY OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS IN
THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHTENING WRAP OF DEEPENING RAIN BANDS
FEEDING INTO INTO A RAGGED 20-NM BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
CONSISTENT WITH A NEWLY-FORMED EYE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH VERY WARM SST IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, LOW VWS, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 142330Z
   CIMSS DPRNT: 76 KTS AT 142330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 05-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MAN-YI WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON 70NM SOUTHWEST OF
CASIGURAN AROUND TAU 54, TRACK ACROSS LUZON THEN EXIT INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) VIA LINGAYEN GULF AROUND TAU 60. THE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
FUEL GRADUAL THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 125KTS BY
TAU 48. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO 60KTS
BY TAU 72 AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. COOLING SSTS IN THE SCS,
INCREASING VWS AND A COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL FURTHER ERODE
THE SYSTEM TO 35KTS BY TAU 120.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 92NM BY TAU 72, THEN TO JUST 185NM BY TAU
120. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH LAND PASSAGE
THERE IS ONLY OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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