WDPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 
024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.4N 133.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 192 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS INDICATED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN 
THE COLD CENTRAL COVER AND TIGHTENING WRAP OF MORE DEFINED RAIN
BANDS FEEDING INTO INTO A FORMATIVE BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION 
AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING 
EYE, OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS 
REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND CONSISTENT WITH A 
FORMATIVE EYE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY
WARM SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 141626Z
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 141730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 05-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MAN-YI WILL TRACK WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD, 
MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON NEAR BALER JUST
BEFORE TAU 60, TRACKING ACROSS LUZON, THEN EXITING INTO THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA (SCS) VIA LINGAYEN GULF AROUND TAU 66. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES LEADING TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO A PEAK OF 125KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, 
LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO 70KTS AT TAU 72 AFTER IT 
EXITS INTO THE SCS. COOLING SSTS IN THE SCS, INCREASING VWS AND A COLD 
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
40KTS BY TAU 120.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 124NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO JUST 168NM BY TAU 
120;HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH LAND PASSAGE THERE 
IS ONLY OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN