WDXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.3S 76.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 283 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 141059Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES, WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AS WELL AS DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 TOWARD A BREAK
IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH TWO MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING TO THE 
SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL BUILD IN AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS DUE 
TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER 
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER A REGION 
OF COOLER SST (25-26C). 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 105 NM AT TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE 
DIVERGES. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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