WDPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 
022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.6N 136.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 110 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH SPIRAL BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
140411Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SOMEWHAT
RAGGED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH STRONG DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A NARROW TUTT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
110NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, WHICH IS REPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 
ONLY 10-15 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE 140000Z YAP SOUNDING INDICATES 30-35 
KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM 1000-2500 FEET. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED 
TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 140530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 140530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 140413Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 140530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS REVEALED IN BOTH THE 
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH A POOL OF VERY
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AVAILABLE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THE SYSTEM
CROSSES LUZON AND TRACKS BACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL SERVE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.      

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 90NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. AFTER 
TAU 72, GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH A 190NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 
TAU 120. THE 131800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND THE 140000Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72. GEFS INDICATES RAPID 
WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER 
TAU 72, WITH SOLUTIONS DIVERGING FROM SOUTHERN VIETNAM TO HAINAN 
ISLAND AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE 140000Z COAMPS-TC 
ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INTENSITY PROBABILITY CHART INDICATES PEAK 60-70 
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 
48. RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY GUIDANCE COMPRISING THE JTWC 
INTENSITY CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS STRONG SUPPORT FOR RI THROUGH TAU 60, 
WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) PEAKING AT 115-120 KNOTS BY TAU 48.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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