WDPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 137.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM NORTH OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS INDICATED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE
COLD CENTRAL COVER AND TIGHTENING WRAP OF MORE DEFINED FEEDERS BAND
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
132350Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN
THE EIR LOOP. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, LOW VWS, AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 132219Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 132330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 05-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MAN-YI WILL TRACK WESTWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON NEAR BALER JUST
AFTER TAU 72, TRACK ACROSS LUZON THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS) VIA LINGAYEN GULF AROUND TAU 84. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
HIGHLY FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES LEADING TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO A PEAK OF 125KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, LAND
INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO 65KTS AT TAU 96 AFTER IT
EXITS INTO THE SCS. COOLING SSTS IN THE SCS, INCREASING VWS AND A
COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 60KTS BY
TAU 120.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL SPREAD TO 220NM BY TAU 72, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. AFTERWARD,
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH LAND PASSAGE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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