WDPN33 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.2N 116.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 168 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FRAGMENTED TS 26W STRUGGLING WITH ORGANIZING CONVECTION, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY CONTAINED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STR TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD,
IT IS APPROACHING MORE DRY AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANIMATED IR LOOP, AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION FROM 122217Z AMSR2 PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS AN EARLIER
AMSR2 PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR2 DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 122330Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 122330Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 44 KTS AT 122046Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 130000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY SEPARATES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. AT TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 24 KTS. AS THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE 
ABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATION AT TAU 48, REACHING WIND SPEEDS BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 72. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN IMPROVING
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
PREDICTING SIMILAR TRANSIT TRACK FOR TS 26W, WITH TIGHT CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, EXCLUDING OUTLIERS ON EACH SIDE OF
THE TRACK - NAVGEM AND JGSM. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS NOT AS GOOD,
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE DISCREPANCIES IN REGARD TO THE TIMELINE OF
DISSIPATION AND THE ABILITY OF THE MODELS TO TRACE THE VORTEX.
OVERALL, NEARLY ALL MODELS EXPECT DISSIPATION TO OCCUR
APPROXIMATELY 100-150 NM EAST OF HAINAN, WHILE INTENSITY SPREAD
ACROSS CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE WITHIN 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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