WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (YINXING) 
WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.3N 109.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 123 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES ON A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE
RECENT FLARE OF CONVECTION, TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W IS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
CIRCULATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 112330Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 112330Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 112101Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 120000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. LITTLE TO NO
INTENSITY CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE IMMINENT LANDFALL.
RAPID DISSIPATION OVER LAND WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 12.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST,
REFLECTING THE STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING AND STRUCTURAL INFLUENCES.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS, LYING CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF EACH WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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