WDPN33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.3N 119.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 247 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL
PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EVIDENT IN AN 111339Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT MULTI-AGENCY SATELLITE POSITION
FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, FAVORING AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCLUDING THE
CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY OF 51 KNOTS AND FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY WIND SPEEDS EVIDENT IN THE 111339Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA (111339Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS)

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 111807Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 111900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON RECENT
MOTION AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PACKAGE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE
AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES, THE
STEERING LEVEL WILL DROP AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF HAINAN
ISLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED
STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY THE ENTRENCHED STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY,
WITH THE MOGREPS-G ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A SOUTHWARD JOG, GFS AND JGSM
SHOWING A WESTWARD TRACK, AND THE REMAINING GUIDANCE KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. REGARDLESS OF
THE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TERM, A VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, SIGNATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN AS ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EXTREMELY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
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