WDPN33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.0N 120.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 416 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AFTER TRACKING QUICKLY ACROSS LUZON AND DEFLECTING NORTHWESTWARD, 
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W HAS RE-EMERGED OVER WATER. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
STARTING TO REORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 111007Z WSFM 
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC, WITH A 
DISORGANIZED AND WEAKLY DEFINED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR 
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WEAKENED STRUCTURE AND LOWER 
RANGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 111043Z
   CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 111130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 57 KTS AT 111130Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 111200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. 
TS TORAJI WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 WITH SOME POTENTIAL 
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF MODEST INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT, WITH SIGNIFICANT 
WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES VERY DRY THROUGH 
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AFTER TAU 60, EXTENSIVE DRY AIR WILL 
ENVELOP THE SYSTEM LEADING TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING RATE. 
ADDITIONALLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS (20-25 
KNOTS) AND SST VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 26-27C). AFTER TAU 72, THE 
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR WILL WEAKEN AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SHIFT 
INTO SOUTHERN CHINA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE 
AND A SLOWER, MORE ERRATIC TRACK MOTION.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND JGSM VORTEX 
TRACKERS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHINA,
THE DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES AN ERRATIC, SLOW TRACK
MOTION AFTER TAU 72, WITH A SHARP SOUTHWARD TURN EAST OF HAINAN
ISLAND. EPS AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT
CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 72 THEN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EPS SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS 
REFLECTING HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS TURNING 
THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD. THE BULK OF THE GEFS SOLUTIONS 
TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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