WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (YINXING) WARNING NR 
033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 110.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 134 NM EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, AN 110725Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND MARGINAL SST VALUES. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA, CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 110240Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 110530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 110530Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 110600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: EXTENSIVE DRY AIR

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W WILL TRACK QUICKLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18. AFTER TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, WITH A 65NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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