WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (YINXING) WARNING NR 
032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.1N 111.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 196 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
FLARED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC), LIKELY DUE TO DIURNAL
COOLING, BUT REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FINAL-T 
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM FOUR REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE 
WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME HIGHLY 
UNFAVORABLE WITH THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW GREATLY OFFSET BY HIGH 
RELATIVE VWS, COOL SST AND INCURSION OF CONTINENTAL DRY AIR FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN CHINA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS DPRNT: 32 KTS AT 102330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM YINXING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR TO THE WEST. THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO DIMINISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
GRADUALLY SPREADING OUT TO A MERE 74NM BY TAU 24, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.  


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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