WDPN33 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.9N 123.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 154 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 41 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS EVIDENCED BY DEEPENING CLOUD TOPS IN THE 
COLD CENTRAL COVER (CCC) AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER TOWARD THE 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CCC HAS MAINTAINED 
ITS COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE EIR LOOP ALSO 
SHOWS A CONFINED OUTFLOW AS SHOWN BY A SIMILARLY SYMMETRICAL CIRRUS 
CANOPY CIRCLING THE CCC ANTICYCLONICALLY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN A 
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO 
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON IDENTICAL DVORAK ESTIMATES 
FROM ALL FOUR REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE AND WRAP IN THE 6-HR IR-BD LOOP. ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM ALONG-TRACK SST, AND 
MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 101444Z
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 101730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 05-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON TORAJI WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS 
THE STEERING STR WEAKENS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON NEAR QUEZON 
PROVINCE AROUND TAU 06, TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON THEN EXIT INTO 
THE SOUTH CHINA (SCS) SEA NEAR VIGAN AROUND TAU 18. THE HIGHLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL, AT A MINIMUM, MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED 
CORDILLERA MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE SYSTEM 
DOWN TO 55KTS BY THE TIME IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. THE WARM WATERS
WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT BEST UP TO TAU 36; AFTERWARD, A DRY 
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, COOLING SST, AND CONTINENTAL DRY AIR FROM
CHINA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 
AFTER IT GETS DEFLECTED SOUTHWESTWARD AND ABSORBED BY THE 
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. 
  
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO A MERE 77NM BY TAU 72. AFTER
TAU 72, THE MODELS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERRATICALLY IN ALL 
DIRECTIONS. IN VIEW OF THESE AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED 
WITH PASSAGE OVER ROUGH TERRAIN, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO 
THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW 
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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