WDPN33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.6N 124.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 206 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
                         PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS INDICATED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AND
BUILDING BACK OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
CONSEQUENTLY, AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES INCREASED TO 77
KNOTS AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW RANGE FROM 71 TO
74 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 100924Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH A PARTIAL 
INNER EYEWALL AND A DEFINED LLCC IN ADDITION TO TIGHTLY CURVED 
BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND RECENT ASCAT DATA. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AIDING IN SUSTAINED 
INTENSIFICATION. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 101108Z
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 101130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 101130Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 71 KTS AT 101300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS VWS RELAXES. PEAK INTENSITY SHOULD BE
NEAR 85 KNOTS BUT COULD POTENTIALLY JUMP HIGHER IF THE SYSTEM FORMS
AN EYE. AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN 
SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF LUZON. AFTER
TAU 24, TY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 WITH 
STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLING SST VALUES, 
PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 48. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL 
SLOW AS THE STR WEAKENS, THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY AND TURN WESTWARD UNDER 
LOW-LEVEL STEERING. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK 
AND INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER TAU 72, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A 
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SYSTEM, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CHINA.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE 100600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) REVEALS A TIGHT
GROUPING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 72, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
AFTER TAU 72. THE 100600Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) IS ALSO IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, BOTH ENSEMBLES DIVERGE WITH
SOLUTIONS SPREAD FROM SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND TO HONG KONG. THIS
PRONOUNCED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72 IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
STR OVER THE HONG KONG, HAINAN ISLAND REGION DUE TO ENCROACHING
WESTERLIES OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. A STRONG SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL TURN
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH SHARPLY RECURVES THE SYSTEM POLEWARD
TOWARD TAIWAN, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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