WDPN33 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.1N 126.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 343 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM
RESUMED ITS INTENSIFICATION AS EVIDENCED BY DEEPENING CLOUD TOPS IN
THE COLD CENTRAL COVER (CCC) AND FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER
TOWARD THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CCC HAS MAINTAINED
ITS COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE EIR LOOP ALSO
SHOWS A CONFINED OUTFLOW AS SHOWN BY A SIMILARLY SYMMETRICAL CIRRUS
CANOPY CIRCLING THE CCC ANTICYCLONICALLY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS
IN THE CCC, LIKELY A FORMATIVE BANDING EYE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH
A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 092213Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND WRAP IN THE 6-HR IR-BD LOOP.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS,
WARM ALONG-TRACK SST, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 77 KTS AT 092216Z
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 092330Z
   CIMSS DPRNT: 64 KTS AT 092330Z
   CIMSS DMNT: 55KTS AT 092216

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 05-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM TORAJI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
LUZON NEAR QUEZON PROVINCE AROUND TAU 24, TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
LUZON THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA (SCS) SEA NEAR VIGAN AROUND
TAU 36. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION TO 85KTS AT LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE 
RUGGED CORDILLERA MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE SYSTEM 
DOWN TO 55KTS BY THE TIME IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. THE WARM WATERS WILL 
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT BEST UP TO TAU 48; AFTERWARD, A DRY 
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, COOLING SST, AND CONTINENTAL DRY AIR FROM CHINA 
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 25KTS BY TAU 120 AFTER IT 
GETS DEFLECTED SOUTHWESTWARD BY A SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO A MERE 68NM BY TAU 72, SANS
AFUM THE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. AFTER TAU 72, THE MODELS SPREAD
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERRATICALLY IN ALL DIRECTIONS. IN VIEW OF
THESE AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OVER
ROUGH TERRAIN, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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