WDPN33 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.0N 128.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 430 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM
IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA THAT HAS MOSTLY MAINTAINED ITS COMPACT AND
SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS A CONFINED 
OUTFLOW AS SHOWN BY A SIMILARLY SYMMETRICAL CIRRUS CANOPY CIRCLING THE 
COLD CENTRAL COVER ANTICYCLONICALLY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS IN THE 
COLD CENTRAL COVER, LIKELY A FORMATIVE BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT 
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND WRAP IN THE 6-HR IR-BD LOOP. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM ALONG-
TRACK SST, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 091730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 05-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM TORAJI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON NEAR QUEZON PROVINCE AROUND
TAU 30, TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
(SCS) SEA JUST SOUTH OF VIGAN BY TAU 42. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS
BY TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED CORDILLERA
MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS
BY THE TIME IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. THE WARM WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
THE INTENSITY AT BEST UP TO TAU 72; AFTERWARD, A COLD NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AND CONTINENTAL DRY AIR FROM CHINA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 25KTS AS IT GETS DEFLECTED SOUTHWESTWARD BY A
SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO A MERE 117NM BY TAU 72 THEN
TO 18NM BY TAU 120; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
MOTION AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER LUZON, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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