WDPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 
029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.7N 120.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 609 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED, RUGGED CORE OF TROPICAL STORM 23W, WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH CONTINUOUS STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
WHILE ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIGGED (STR) TO THE
EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PRESENT IN THE
ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, AS WELL AS THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE
TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW, CONSISTENT WITH THE DEGRADED
STRUCTURE OF THE STORM, AS WELL AS SUPPORTING LOCAL SURFACE
PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO 
THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 312100Z
   CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 312330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 22-24 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 23W IS TRACKING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN 
CHINA, WHILE CONTINUING TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE EAST, AND 
AT THE SAME TIME ENTERING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT COMPLETES 
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. AS A COLD-CORE LOW IT WILL 
ACCELERATE AND TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MAIN JAPANESE 
ISLANDS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 200MB JET FLOW ALOFT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 99 NM BY
TAU 24. MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS TAKE THE TRACK OVER
SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAPAN WITH VARYING ACCELERATION RATES, AS
EVIDENCED BY THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 150 NM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STEADY WEAKENING TREND ACROSS ALL
MEMBERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 
THEREFORE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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