WDPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.0N 120.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 740 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 49 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY, TYPHOON (TY) 23W HAS QUICKLY 
REEMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF CENTRAL TAIWAN WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY 
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE RAPID TRANSIT ACROSS TAIWAN COULD 
POSSIBLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO A LEE-SIDE JUMP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY BRIEFLY REVEALED A 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR 311200Z, WHICH 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, RECENT RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROADER, MORE RAGGED LLCC DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE 
TAIWAN STRAIT. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, INTERACTION 
WITH THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE AND COOLER SST 
VALUES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT ARE HINDERING REDEVELOPMENT. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR 
IMAGERY AND A 311200Z RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T4.5-5.5, WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 
96-104KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 311230ZZ
   CIMSS AIDT: 104 KTS AT 311200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 102 KTS AT 311200Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 101 KTS AT 311008Z  
 
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH ROUGH TERRAIN

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 23W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12, WITH FURTHER 
WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH ROUGH TERRAIN AND COOL SST. AFTER 
TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE 
STR AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WHILE INTERACTING 
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR TAU 24. TY 23W WILL ACCELERATE 
EASTWARD WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL TRANSITION INTO AN 
EXTRA-TROPICAL COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE JET.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE 310600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SUPPORTS THE
JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY THROUGH TAU 48 BUT LOSES THE CENTER THEREAFTER. 
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER 
KYUSHU AT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THEN SOUTH OF HONSHU AT 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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