WDPN32 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.1N 121.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 746 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: XX FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 23W MADE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF TAIWAN AT 
APPROXIMATELY 310500Z, WITH RAPID WEAKENING EVIDENT IN RECENT 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY, THE EYE RAPIDLY BECAME CLOUD-
FILLED WITH DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EYEWALL STRUCTURE. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TAIDONG (59562), LOCATED ABOUT 17NM SSW, 
INDICATED SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 56 KNOTS, 
WITH SLP NEAR 970.0MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, TY 23W IS 
TRACKING OVER VERY ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR 
IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DATA-T ESTIMATES OF T5.0-5.5 
(90-102KTS), WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 
101-115KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 103 KTS AT 310520Z
   CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 310530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH ROUGH TERRAIN

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 23W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 24, WITH RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH ROUGH TERRAIN. WHILE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM MAY
EXHIBIT ERRATIC TRACK MOTION AS IT DECOUPLES FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE AROUND
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
NEAR TAU 36. TY 23W WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD WITHIN THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL COLD-CORE
LOW BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE JET.             

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE 310000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SUPPORTS THE
JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY THROUGH TAU 48 BUT LOSES THE CENTER
THEREAFTER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SOLUTIONS TRACK THE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF HONSHU AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN