WDPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 122.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 256 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLEAR
AND HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL, 40NM-WIDE EYE OF THE TYPHOON 23W (KONG-REY). 
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AS 
INDICATED BY THE 301708Z GCOMW1 AMSR2 37 GHZ AND 89 GHZ MICROWAVE 
PRODUCT SUITE, SHOWING A DOUBLE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CONFIGURATION WITH 
A CLEAR MOAT IN BETWEEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A COMBINATION OF 
PRODUCTS, INCLUDING INFRARED, WATER VAPOR, RADAR, AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON 301708Z THE AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWING A BAND 
OF 100-106 KTS WIND TO THE SOUTH OF THE EYE, CONSISTENT WITH THE 
FINAL 
T DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES INDICATING AN ACROSS-THE-BOARD WEAKENING 
TREND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 119 KTS AT 301652Z
   CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 301730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING ERC

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ACCELERATE BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE 200MB
JET AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS
SOUTHEASTERN TAIWAN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH EXPECTED LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER. AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ERC IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
WEAKENING, DOWN TO APPROXIMATELY 85-95 KTS BY THE TIME IT MAKES 
LANDFALL. CONSIDERING THE IMMINENT LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE (CMR), AS WELL AS THE ERC, THE EXACT TRACK
OVER TAIWAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ERRATIC. TY 23W WILL MOST LIKELY
DECOUPLE AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH RE-EMERGING
INITIATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF TAIWAN.
AS THE SYSTEM REFORMS, WITH THE FORECAST INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 65
KTS, IT WILL START TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
BEGIN A NORTHWARD TURN. BY TAU 48 IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED BY TAU 72 OR 96. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE BY TAU 72, AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE JAPANESE ISLANDS AND IS BEING PROPELLED BY THE 200
MB JET.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
REGARD TO THE TRACK FOR THE INITIAL TAUS TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE TAIWAN ISLAND. THERE IS SOME INHERENT UNCERTAINTY BELONGING TO
THIS TRACK, HOWEVER ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AT THE MOMENT
AND THEREFORE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BEGINNING WITH TAUS 36-48
HOWEVER, THE CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BEGIN TO
DRASTICALLY INCREASE, WITH LESS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. AT
TAU 72 THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 270 NM AND ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD TO 470 NM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ACROSS
THE MODELS, WITH INDICATIONS OF STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT TAU 72
AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
JUST ABOVE THE ESTIMATES FROM GFS AND HFAI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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