WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.1N 124.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 407 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON 23W (KONG-REY) WITH A VERY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) COVERING THE EYEWALL. WITHIN THE LARGE (AROUND 40 NM) EYE,
MULTIPLE MESOVORTICIES CAN BE SEEN ORBITING. THE SYSTEM HAS AN
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW SIGNATURE, PARTICULARLY IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 23W CONTINUES TO
BE IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 300000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 135 AT 300000Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 142 KTS AT 300000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR POSITIONED TO
THE EAST THROUGH TAU 36. AROUND TAU 30, 23W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. NEAR TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGGING TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TAU 96. REGARDING INTENSITY, 23W IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 135 KTS DUE TO THE
CONTINUED HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO
INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DROP AS KONG-REY
APPROACHES TAIWAN. AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 110-120 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL IN TAIWAN, WHICH WILL THEN MARK THE INITIATION OF
A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. NEAR TAU 48, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE, ADDITIONALLY
INTERACTION WITH EASTERN CHINA WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
DEGRADE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY WORSEN AS 23W TRACKS INTO THE
BAROCLININC ZONE, CAUSING FURTHER WEAKENING. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE TRACK OF 23W THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 30 NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN TAIWAN AND 65 NM SPREAD IN
CONSENSUS MEMBERS AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
INTERACTION WITH THE JET. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND
LOW THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A
STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48 AND
A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARDS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24
AND CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THEREAFTER WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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