WDPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2N 127.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 428 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
23W (KONG-REY) WITH AN IMPROVED STRUCTURE, PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE BANDING CAN BE SEEN
WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION NOW SUGGESTING THAT 23W
IS QUICKLY BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A WARM SPOT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS ALSO DEVELOPING WITH INDICATIONS OF AN EYE FORMING.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 23W IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WARM SPOT SEEN IN THE ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 281729Z
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 281800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 60 KTS AT 281800Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 75 KTS AT 281800Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 65 KTS AT 121723Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST
THROUGH TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS
AND THEN BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. 23W IS
THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR TAU 120, POSSIBLY SOONER. REGARDING INTENSITY, 23W IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 105 KTS AT TAU 24 DUE TO THE
CONTINUED HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS AT TAU 36.
NEAR TAU 60, 23W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. AS LAND INTERACTION BEGINS TO DEGRADE
THE VORTEX, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN TO AROUND 75
KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE TAIWAN STRAIT. AFTER THE VORTEX ENTERS THE
STRAIT, IT WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINNING AT TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION NO LATER THAN TAU
120. AS THE VORTEX GAINS LATITUDE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 REGARDING THE TRACK OF 23W WITH A 130 NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT THAT TIME. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN TAIWAN, GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO SPREAD. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT BETWEEN TAU 72
AND 96 23W WILL INTERACT WITH THE COAST OF CHINA TO VARYING
DEGREES, WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY.
OVERALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW THEREAFTER. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING
FROM 95-120 KTS AT TAU 36 (GFS AND HWRF ON THE LOW END WITH HAFS-A
AND COAMPS-TC ON THE HIGH END). THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW THEREAFTER DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTERACTION WITH THE COAST OF CHINA AFTER
TAU 72. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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