WDPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY)     
WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 128.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 589 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W CONTINUES TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE UNDER VERY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE RADIAL OUTFLOW 
(ESPECIALLY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
WARM SST VALUES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH AN EYE BEGINNING TO FORM. HOWEVER, A 280904Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO REVEAL 
SOMEWHAT LIMITED CORE CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 
280936Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE SHOWS AN OBLONG CORE OF WEAK WINDS, 
APPROXIMATELY 50NM BY 70NM, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND A 
MAXIMUM WIND BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS SAR IMAGE WAS 
USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND RADII WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55-65 KNOTS AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 51-63 KNOTS.  

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 59 KTS AT 281200Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 281200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 60 KTS AT 281200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 63 KTS AT 281200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W IS FORECAST TO
COMMENCE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WHILE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. RI WILL BE AIDED AS IT TRACKS OVER A 
REGION OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FROM ABOUT TAU 12 TO TAU 36. THE 
PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR TAU 48 UNDER A VERY 
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WITH LANDFALL 
OVER SOUTHEAST TAIWAN EXPECTED NEAR TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM 
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE CROSSING TAIWAN THEN RECURVE TOWARD WESTERN 
JAPAN. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMMENCE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO 
INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 55NM TO 100NM 
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 72. PROBABILISTIC 
GUIDANCE FROM EPS AND GEFS SHOWS A WIDER SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AND A 
HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH TRACK SOLUTIONS SPREAD FROM JUST 
NORTH OF LUZON TO ABOUT 125E LONGITUDE. THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE IS CONCENTRATED JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN TO JUST NORTH OF TAIWAN. 
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS A PEAK 
INTENSITY RANGING FROM 110-125 KNOTS AT TAU 48. THE 280600Z COAMPS-TC 
ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITY CHART INDICATES 70 TO 90 PERCENT 
PROBABILITIES FROM TAU 6 TO TAU 42, WHICH SUPPORTS THE JTWC RI 
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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