WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TRAMI) WARNING 
NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.6N 108.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 27 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. THE 
LLC IS DRIFTING TOWARD DA NANG (VVDN), WHICH IS REPORTING UNIMPRESSIVE 
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS, WITH SLP NEAR 1002MB. THE 
OBSERVED SLP CORRESPONDS TO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH SYSTEM 
ON THE KNAFF-ZEHR WIND PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP (WPR) CHART. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT DA NANG, CONSISTENT WITH THE RELATIVELY 
WEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER).

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W IS SITUATED WITHIN 
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW, WITH 
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
CONSEQUENTLY, TD 22W IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN 
IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER NEAR TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEER 
GENERALLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE NER AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 UNDER THE UNFAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 36 TO TAU 48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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