WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.8N 129.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 481 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A THRIVING
AND INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM 23W AS IT TRANSITIONS WESTWARD AND
BEGIN TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS 
ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST, AND IN EFFECT, TURN TOWARDS TAIWAN. FUELED 
BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), TS 23W IS BUILDING THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION, WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS
OPENING UP A POLEWARD CHANNEL. SOME PULSES OF RADIAL OUTFLOW WERE
ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 272325Z GPM GMI 37 GHZ AND A 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
272154Z SMAP EDGE-OF-THE-SWATH WIND SPEED PASS SHOWING A BAND OF
45-50 KTS WINDS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 272155Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 272330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 23W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN IMMINENTLY AND CONTINUE HEADING TOWARDS TAIWAN, WHILE STEADILY
INTENSIFYING UNTIL APPROXIMATELY TAU 72. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN TAIWAN. PEAK INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO REACH 110 KTS, WITH A POTENTIAL OF HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN TAU 72 AND LANDFALL. AS THE SYSTEM THEN TRANSITS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF TAIWAN, IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY TAU 96 TS 23W IS FORECAST TO RE-EMERGE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TAIWAN, REDUCED TO 85KTS, AND STEERED BY THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE A 
SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN HEADING TOWARDS SOUTH KOREA 
AND JAPAN. AT THAT STAGE, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DOWN TO 40 KTS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, WITH THE ONLY
OUTLIER BEING NAVGEM, WHICH DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE STR STEERING
PATTERN AND TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A TRACK TOWARDS TAIWAN.
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT CAN BE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE LANDFALL AND UPON
TS 23W RE-EMERGENCE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT. SOME MODELS PREDICT A
MUCH SHARPER RECURVING TRACK, WHILE OTHERS PREDICT THE STORM TO
GRAZE THE CHINA COAST BEFORE COMPLETING THE TURN. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND REMAINS MORE CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE
WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OUT TO TAU 72,
FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY THE COAMPS-TC
POTENTIAL FOR RI AT 40 TO 90 PERCENT FOR TAUS 18 THROUGH 66.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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