WDPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING 
NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 130.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 563 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM 23W, WITH EXISTING
STRONG EQUATORWARD AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED IR
IMAGERY, AS WELL AS A 271638Z GCOMW1 AMSR2 PASS SHOWING
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION BANDING AS WELL AS ELONGATED GALE-FORCE
WIND FIELD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A BROADER PORTION OF WEAK
WINDS PRESENT IN THE 270928Z RCM-2 SAR PASS STILL EXIST, WHILE TWO
DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO
ONE, AS THE STRUCTURE OF TS 23W IMPROVES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 271304Z
METOPC ASCAT PASS, AS WELL AS THE OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 271900Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 271730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AFTER WHICH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WILL FURTHER OPEN UP AND THE SYSTEM WILL START TURNING 
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL 
LEAD TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION, WITH PEAK INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 115 
KTS BY TAU 72, OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE TAIWANESE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE, WHICH WILL HAVE HEAVY DETRIMENTAL IMPACT ON TS
23W, ITS DEVELOPMENT, STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. AS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE MAIN STEERING
MECHANISM, BY TAU 120 TS 23W WILL RECURVE NORTH- TO NORTHEASTWARD 
TOWARDS SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN AND IS FORECAST TO RE-EMERGE AS A 45-KT 
TROPICAL STORM. FOLLOWING THE TRANSIT OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, TS 23W 
WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE CURRENTLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO BOTH TRACK
AND INTENSITY. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS CURRENTLY 75 NM BY TAU 72
INDICATING NARROW UNCERTAINTY ENVELOPE. MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
NOW FORECASTS LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN, WITH JUST NAVGEM AND UKMET
TAKING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK. JTWC FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS WELL, WITH ALL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 72,
FOLLOWED BY A RAPID WEAKENING TREND, CONSISTENT WITH LAND
INTERACTION. COAMPS-TC RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE
ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RI AT 40 TO 80 PERCENT FOR TAUS 18
THROUGH 66.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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