WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TRAMI) WARNING 
NR 030//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.3N 107.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 51 NM SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 05 KTS

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TD 22W, AS THE
SYSTEM LOOPS AROUND THE BORDER OF LAOS AND VIETNAM. DESPITE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED DECENT STRUCTURAL
INTEGRITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE RADAR AND ANIMATED IR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON WEAKENING
CONVECTION AND THIN BANDING.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE WEST AND TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 22W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE BORDER OF
LAOS AND VIETNAM AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER LAND DUE TO
COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS - A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
WEST AND ANOTHER STR TO THE NORTH EAST. AS THE NORTHEASTERN RIDGE
WEAKENS, IT WILL ALLOW TD 22W TO TRACK NORTH AND EVENTUALLY BACK
OVER WATER BY TAU 36. LAND INTERACTION AND CONTINUOUS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN TD 22W STEADY WEAKENING, SO THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE JUST OFF THE COAST OF VIETNAM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT AND
THEREFORE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
PARTICULARLY OVER TIME PERIOD OVER LAND. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES IT
BACK OVER WATER, THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT, WITH
MOST MODELS INDICATING EASTWARD TRACK OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA.
INTENSITY AIDS INDICATE STEADY WEAKENING ACROSS THE BOARD, WHICH
LEAVES POTENTIAL FOR DISSIPATION OVER LAND, OR SHORTLY AFTER
RE-EMERGING OVER WATER. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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