WDPN32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 132.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 633 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TWO DISTINCT 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS, WHICH ARE ROTATING AROUND A CENTROID 
NEAR 16.7N 132.0E (THE INITIAL POSITION). THE FIRST LLCC IS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.9N 131.0E AND IS GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD. THE SECOND LLCC 
IS TRACKING NORTHWARD AND IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 132.3E. THE PRESENCE 
OF MULTIPLE LLCCS IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE LATEST HAFS-A RUN, WHICH 
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES THE MULTIPLE LLCCS INTO A DISCRETE LLCC BY TAU 
24. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD WIND MINIMUM THAT 
CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE INITIAL POSITION. AS INDICATED IN A 270646Z 
SSMIS COLOR 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE LLCC IS BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED BETWEEN THE TWO LLCCS, WITH BROAD BANDING OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STEADILY IMPROVING WITH 
ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS 
BASED ON THE RANGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST, WITH A BREAK IN THE STR OVER
THE OKINAWA REGION.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 270453Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 270530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS THE BROAD LLCC
CONSOLIDATES. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER
RATE WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY
POSSIBLE EAST OF TAIWAN. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 23W WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WITH A TRACK NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. IN GENERAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RECURVE
TOWARD KYUSHU WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU
120.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER AND
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON A CENTROID
APPROACH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
FORECAST AND TRACK SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE 270000Z ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE (EPS) ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM 
OVER TAIWAN OR EAST TO OKINAWA THRUGH TAU 120. THE 270000Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SHOWS A WIDER SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FROM STRAIGHT RUNNER 
TRACKS OVER NORTHERN LUZON TO RECURVE SOLUTIONS WEST OF OKINAWA TO 
ABOUT 125E LONGITUDE. THE 270000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INTENSITY 
PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 72 PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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