WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING 
NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.4N 132.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 662 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY
PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, UTILIZING
MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS SOME SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT REMAINS RELATIVELY FREE OF CONVECTION DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR. TS 23W IS MOVING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRAJECTORY,
AS IT SLOWLY SWITCHES ALIGNMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MOVING EAST, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A TS 23W
NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON FULLY EXPOSED LLCC PRESENT IN THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 261930Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 270010Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
HEADING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT THE STR TO
THE NORTH WILL REORIENT AND MOVE EAST, LEADING TO A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THAT, TS 23W WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRANSITS TOWARDS YONAGUNI ISLAND. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE 110 KTS BY TAU 96, WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED. AFTERWARDS, STARTING WITH TAU 120, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, WITH NAVGEM AND GALWEM CONTINUING TO BE THE OUTLYING
MODELS CREATING LARGELY SPREAD CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE PROJECTED BY THE REMAINDER OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND JTWC FORECAST IS LAID IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH HEAVIER OFFSET
FOR LEAST LIKELY SOLUTION OFFERED BY NAVGEM, THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS TAKING THE TS 23W CLOSER TO TAIWAN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ISHIGAKI JIMA. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS ESTIMATING STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OUT TO TAUS 84-96, FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING
AFTERWARDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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