WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 
027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.5N 108.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 31 NM NORTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TS 22W
AND ITS BROADLY ORGANIZED SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH
PRIMARILY WESTWARD OUTFLOW, CURRENTLY APPROACHING CENTRAL VIETNAM 
WHILE STILL UNDER MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
DESPITE THAT, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS DEEP AND PERSISTENT. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 262338Z 
F1 SSMIS 36 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OFF 
THE COAST OF VIETNAM, NEAR THE CITY OF DA NANG. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND 
AGENCY ESTIMATES, CORROBORATED BY COASTAL WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 262100Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 270010Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST IS CALLING FOR DISSIPATION
OVER LAND BY TAU 48

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS TS 22W MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DA NANG, VIETNAM,
IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD TURN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. 
THERE IS SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO A POTENTIAL FOR A 
SHARP RETURN BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CHINA SEA AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER 
WATER, HOWEVER CONSIDERING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS, THAT SOLUTION IS LESS LIKELY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS, WHILE SOME MODELS
ARE CALLING FOR SLOWER WEAKENING OVER LAND, COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF RE-EMERGING OVER WATER. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, ACCOUNTING FOR IMMINENT LAND INTERACTION IMPACT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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