WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.9N 135.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 708 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 261228Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
QUADRANT, WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 261145Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL 
POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED 
CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND 
NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES 
RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS AND THE CIMSS ADT, AIDT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED 
TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 261300Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 261200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 261200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W WILL TRACK WESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, 
THE STR WILL WEAKEN AS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SHIFT OVER 
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA, WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THIS WILL REORIENT THE STR
IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD ISHIGAKI-JIMA. 
TS 23W IS STRUGGLING UNDER PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) AND WILL LIKELY SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS. THIS WILL 
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT A GREATER RATE THROUGH TAU 120. THE 
PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 110 KNOTS BY TAU 120, WITH 
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PEAK VALUES EAST OF TAIWAN.     

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TWO PRIMARY OUTLIERS
(NAVGEM AND GALWEM), NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT WITH A 170NM TO 280NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GEFS
AND EPS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE LARGE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FANNING OUT FROM TAIWAN EASTWARD TO ABOUT
130E LONGITUDE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS
WELL, WITH HWRF, HAFS-A AND THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW)
PEAKING THE INTENSITY AT 105 TO 110 KNOTS FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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