WDPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 136.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 751 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. A 260523Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED ABOVE THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BASED 
ON THE CIMSS ADT, AIDT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 260530Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 260600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W WILL TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU
48, THE STR WILL WEAKEN AS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SHIFT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA, WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THIS WILL REORIENT THE STR
IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD ISHIGAKI-JIMA. 
TS 23W IS STRUGGLING UNDER PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) AND WILL LIKELY SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS. THIS WILL 
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT A GREATER RATE THROUGH TAU 120. THE 
PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 105 KNOTS BY TAU 120, WITH 
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PEAK VALUES EAST OF TAIWAN.     

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN IMPROVED AGREEMENT WITH A 225NM TO 240NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AT 260000Z FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE LARGE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FANNING OUT FROM
TAIWAN EASTWARD TO ABOUT 130E LONGITUDE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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