WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (KONG-REY) 
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.5N 145.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 32 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SINGLE DEEP
BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM. A FORTUITOUS YET PARTIAL 242353Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETERY IMAGE
SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15-25KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE
LLCC TO THE EAST AND NORTH WHILE A 10-20KT WINDS EXIST TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH. A PROMINENT BELT OF 30-45KT WINDS ARE WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM INDICATES A SMALL
WELL-DEFINED LLCC IS QUASI-STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 23W (KONG-REY) HAS BEEN BORN FROM A LARGE
ELONGATED TROUGHING REGION DRAPED ACROSS THE MARIANAS. FUELED BY
WARM SSTS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST, 23W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE UPPER LOW SPEEDS OFF TO
THE WEST, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS LOST AND REPLACED BY PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS COUPLED WITH A LARGE AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU
72, THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RECURVE SCENARIO
THAT REQUIRES THE SYSTEM TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. THIS ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO TAP INTO FAVORABLE DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT THAT IS
EVENTUALLY FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA. ALL OF
THESE ELEMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR SWIFT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, BUT AS IT STANDS, 23W WILL REACH 55KTS AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEMBERS SPREADING THROUGH TAU
120. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE MEMBERS SUPPORTING LIMITED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72,
FOLLOWED BY MORE VIGOROUS INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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