WDPN32 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.5N 145.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 32 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SINGLE DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. A FORTUITOUS YET PARTIAL 242353Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETERY IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15-25KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE LLCC TO THE EAST AND NORTH WHILE A 10-20KT WINDS EXIST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. A PROMINENT BELT OF 30-45KT WINDS ARE WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM INDICATES A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LLCC IS QUASI-STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 23W (KONG-REY) HAS BEEN BORN FROM A LARGE ELONGATED TROUGHING REGION DRAPED ACROSS THE MARIANAS. FUELED BY WARM SSTS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST, 23W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE UPPER LOW SPEEDS OFF TO THE WEST, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS LOST AND REPLACED BY PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS COUPLED WITH A LARGE AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RECURVE SCENARIO THAT REQUIRES THE SYSTEM TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. THIS ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO TAP INTO FAVORABLE DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT THAT IS EVENTUALLY FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA. ALL OF THESE ELEMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR SWIFT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, BUT AS IT STANDS, 23W WILL REACH 55KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEMBERS SPREADING THROUGH TAU 120. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORTING LIMITED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY MORE VIGOROUS INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN