WDIO31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (DANA) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.3N 89.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 320 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING 
SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231123Z WSFM 37GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE 
IMAGE INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED AND 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL 
POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED METEOSAT-9 WATER VAPOR RGB 
IMAGERY INDICATES ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY 
THE STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. DESPITE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS FIGHTING THE VWS, WITH EXPANDING EASTWARD 
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AGENCY 
SUBJECTIVE AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 36 TO 
45 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 231200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 231200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B WILL TRACK POLEWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL AID IN THE STEADY STRENGTHENING OF THE
SYSTEM TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL BE 
ABLE TO SUSTAIN 50 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS INTO A LARGE BAY,
WITH THE CONCAVE SHAPE OF THE COAST ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW. HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IN THIS COASTAL REGION.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
QUICKLY AS IT TURNS SHARPLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER A 
BUILDING STR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS INLAND.      

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 
TAU 48, DIVERGING DURING THE SHARP WESTWARD TURN AND OVERLAND TRACK. 
EPS AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE A SIMILAR SPREAD OF 
SOLUTIONS. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, 
THE JTWC PEAK INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS 
(ICNW) DUE TO THE ROBUST OUTFLOW. THE EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE INTENSITY 
PROBABILITY CHARTS INDICATE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION (LESS THAN 30 KNOTS) THROUGH TAU 24.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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