WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (JEBI) WARNING 
NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.5N 141.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 774 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET
 
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 19W CONTINUING ON THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING STILL LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE TUTT CELL PREVIOUSLY LIMITING THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, OPENING A POLEWARD
CHANNEL FOR CONVECTIVE VENTILATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST VISIBLE ON THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
 
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
 
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM
 
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 281830Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 290030Z
 
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
 
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
 
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
 
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEBI IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN MAKING
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 24.  UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK WILL DIMINISH WITH THE 
TUTT CELL MOVING OUT OF THE WAY, AND WITH THE INCREASED POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KTS BY 
TAU 48 CHANNEL.  CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY 
TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
82 NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 92 NM BY TAU 48. INTENSITY MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST PLACED CLOSELY
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ONLY ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PEAK INTENSITY, CONSIDERING THE IMPROVEMENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING 48 HOURS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
PEAK AT TAU 48, FOLLOWED BY A RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 60 THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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