WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) 
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.4N 109.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 125 NM NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
AND ELONGATED REGION OF TURNING WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
AXIS OF CONVECTION, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 181800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PRIMARY STEERING BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (15-
20 KTS) WILL HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND TD 16 IS FORECAST TO BEGIN 
STEADY WEAKENING RIGHT AFTER LANDFALL, WITH THE WIND SPEEDS DOWN TO 25 
KTS, FOLLOWED BY COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH TIGHT AGREEMENT
UNTIL LANDFALL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET TAKING THE SYSTEM
SHARPLY NORTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWED DOWN SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST, THE TRACK IS PLACED NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND VERY CLOSE TO ECMWF AND GFS OUT TO TAU 36. AS FAR AS INTENSITY,
JTWC FORECAST IS IN TIGHT ALIGNMENT WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12H, FOLLOWED BY A
STEADY WEAKENING AFTERWARDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: ---
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: ---//
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