WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.7N 127.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 303 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT TY 14W, WHICH OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE.
TYPHOON BEBINCA IS STILL PRODUCING MODERATELY STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WHILE BEING SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR FROM NEARLY ALL
DIRECTIONS. THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM REMAINS ITS PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, HOURLY RADAR FIXES, AS WELL AS A 142138Z WSFM
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW AND CONSIDERING SEVERAL AGENCY
FIXES HIGHER THAN JTWC FORECAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 64 KTS AT 142000Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 150000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
HEADING TOWARDS SHANGHAI, CHINA, STEERED BY A DEEP STR TO THE
NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENVELOPMENT BY
DRY AIR IN DEEP, UPPER LEVELS, OFFSET ONLY BY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. PEAK INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE 65 KNOTS, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING BEGINNING AT
TAU 12. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SHANGHAI, CHINA
AROUND TAU 24 AND CONTINUE DETERIORATING, WHILE TRAVELING FURTHER
INLAND, WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS TAKING TYPHOON BEBINCA ON A SHANGHAI
HEADING, WITH ONLY MINOR CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE RUNS. JTWC
STRONGLY ALIGNS WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AS WELL,
PROJECTING A STEADY WEAKENING BEGINNING WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE ONLY
CONSIDERATION CURRENTLY OFFSETTING THIS ASSESSMENT IS THE SET OF
AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, KNES AND RCTP. AGENCIES
MENTIONED ARE FORECASTING THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS, HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE DEGRADING ENVIRONMENT AND ALL
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS AVAILABLE, JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
LOWER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED AGENCY ESTIMATES. JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH
TAU 24, AFTER WHICH IT CLOSELY MIRRORS THE CONW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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