WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.0N 128.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
14W (BEBINCA) - A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION,
SYMMETRICAL AND CIRCULAR HORIZONTAL STRUCTURE EXHIBITING A
MODERATELY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED SPIRAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION. TY 14W IS SURROUNDED BY RIDGING INDUCED DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, AS WELL AS A LINGERING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WHICH ENHANCES THE WESTWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON HOURLY RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 141800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 141800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD,
BEING STEERED BY THE DEEP STR TO THE NORTH, AND IS ABOUT TO TURN
SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SHANGHAI AREA. TY BEBINCA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS STEADY
WEAKENING, DRIVEN BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS INTRODUCTION OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY
SURROUNDING THE TYPHOON. AS TY 14W MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
SHANGHAI, IN BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 IT WILL BEGIN ITS RAPID
WEAKENING FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK HEADING TOWARDS
SHANGHAI, WITH LITTLE VARIATION BETWEEN THE RUNS. JTWC FORECAST
REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST, WITH JUST UKMET AND JGSM TAKING THE TRACK 22
NM SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS, AT LANDFALL. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FORECASTING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY DECLINE, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF RJTD, WHICH IS FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION OUT TO TAU 24. JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEANING ON THE HIGHER SIDE ONLY AT TAU 12,
GIVEN THE REMAINING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. INTENSITY
CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED AS MEDIUM, DUE TO REMAINING SLIGHT
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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