WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.2N 129.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 126 NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT,
CIRCULAR SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FLARING CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
DRY AIR ON NEARLY ALL SIDES DUE TO RIDGING ALONG THE EAST AND NORTH
SIDES AND A TUTT CELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON HOURLY RADAR FIXES. THE 
INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 
CONSENSUS OF AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND FURTHER SUPPORTED 
BY A SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATION FROM SOUTHERN AMAMI-OSHIMA (KONIYA), 
WHICH REPORTED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 31.1 M/S (65 KTS CONVERTED TO ONE-
MINUTE AVERAGE) AT 141209Z.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBTK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EAST-WEST ORIENTED DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W IS EMERGING FROM ITS BRIEF PASSAGE OVER
LAND AND WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN ITS TRACK
OWING TO STRONG STEERING CONTROL FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
TUTT CELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS OFFERING WEAK ASSISTANCE TO THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BY PULLING SOME OF THE EXHAUST WESTWARD INTO
THE TUTT, WHICH WILL BOOST THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SLIGHTLY AND RESULT
IN A PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING NEAR TAU 18 OVER THE WARM WATERS OF
THE EAST CHINA SEA. HOWEVER, THE DRY, SUBSIDENT AIR UNDER THE TUTT
IN THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WILL HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 NEAR SHANGHAI, AFTER
WHICH DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR INLAND BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: COMPREHENSIVE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED A
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
CORRIDOR, BUT INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE BOUNCED SLIGHTLY NORTH OR
SOUTH WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN. OVERALL, THE JTWC FORECAST HAS
REMAINED IN CLOSE CONJUNCTION WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND IS
PREDICTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ADJUSTED
ITSELF LOWER IN THE LATEST RUNS AND SHOWS A 20-KNOT INTENSITY
SPREAD AT TAU 24, WHICH IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS PREDICTED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVED DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU
24.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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