WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.3N 131.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 194 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM 14W (BEBINCA).
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD STEERED BY THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A SECOND, 
SMALLER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN 
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS FILLING, ALLOWING TS 14W TO DEVELOP A MORE 
FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN, WITH ITS STRONGEST COMPONENT TO THE 
SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) 
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND OCEAN 
HEAT CONTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON PGTW RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, GIVEN WINDS IN THE 45 
TO 50 KNOT RANGE EVIDENT IN A 132104Z SMAP PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SMAP DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 131630Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 140000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W FORWARD TRACK SPEED INCREASED TO 16 KTS
SINCE THE LAST WARNING, WITH THE SAME NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE 
LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN ITS FAVORABLE POSITIONING TO THE EAST OF A
TUTT CELL THAT IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND SOUTH OF 
THE STR, TS BEBINCA IS FORECAST TO REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 70 KTS 
BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY THE TIME TS 14W MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF 
SHANGHAI, AROUND TAU 48, ITS INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 45 KTS. 
OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DUE TO 
LAND INTERACTION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO TRACK, WITH CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM AT LANDFALL, LEADING TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
THE 0-72 HOUR TRACK PLACEMENT. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO 
DEPICT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DOWN A NARROW CORRIDOR SURROUNDING 
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE MOGREPS ENSEMBLE AND UKMET 
MODEL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE NORTH. THE JTWC 
FORECAST IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT 
FOR THE LESS PROBABLE MOGREPS AND UKMET SCENARIOS. OKINAWA REMAINS 
WELL SOUTH OF THE TS 14W FORECAST TRACK. AS FAR AS INTENSITY, THE JTWC 
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH THE PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS SET AS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE LOWER ESTIMATES 
FROM GFS AND HAFS AT TAU 24 (65 KTS MAXIMA) AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE 
COAMPS-TC SOLUTION, WHICH PEAKS BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 (80 KTS PEAK 
INTENSITY). ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER 
TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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