WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.2N 132.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 276 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH
SPIRAL BANDS BECOMING MORE VISIBLE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING WESTWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, A SECOND, SMALLER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY EIR POSITION FIXES AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY
DATA, INCLUDING A 131426Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW AS WELL AS SCATTEROMETER DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBJECTIVE BEST
TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 131630Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 131800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W (BEBINCA) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY THE DEEP STR TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM HAS
STARTED EXHIBITING WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY
MODERATE WESTWARD CHANNEL DRIVEN BY THE TUTT CELL. WHILE THE
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE TUTT CELL AND THE STR REMAINS FAVORABLE,
TS BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. PAST TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR, AND
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DESPITE THE PREVAILING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, INCLUDING HIGH SSTS. TS BEBINCA IS 
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48, WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 
KNOTS. FOLLOWING LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE 
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE, REACHING 15 KNOTS INTENSITY 
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO TRACK, WITH CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM AT TAU 48 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, LEADING TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE 0-72 HOUR TRACK PLACEMENT. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT UKMET-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. ACCOUNTING FOR THE UKMET-BASED OUTLIERS,
THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS PLACE THE TRACK NORTH OF
OKINAWA, PASSING CLOSER TO AMAMI OSHIMA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY MIRRORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY A MID-POINT BETWEEN LESS AGGRESSIVE HAFS (60 KTS
PEAK INTENSITY) AND MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS
(SLIGHTLY OVER 75 KTS PEAK INTENSITY).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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