WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (BEBINCA)      
WARNING NR 007 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8N 140.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 999 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA 
OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. AN 111148Z 
GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 111120Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED 
CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS AND A 
SMALL PATCH OF 33-34 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON 
THE HIGH CONFIDENCE ASCAT DATA, THE CURRENT 111200Z POSITION WAS 
RELOCATED 65 NM SOUTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING'S 111200Z EXPECTED 
POSITION. THIS RELOCATION RESULTED IN A SHIFT OF THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK FURTHER WEST THROUGH ABOUT TAU 48. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR RGB 
IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE AN EXTENSIVE 
REGION OF DRY AIR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 
BROAD UPPER LOW AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS DRY AIR IS ENCROACHING ON THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
ASCAT-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B IMAGE. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 38 TO 53 KNOTS. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 111300Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 111200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 45 KTS AT 111200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 38 KTS AT 111200Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 38 KTS AT 111148Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER-
THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TS 14W WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AFTER
TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED, DEVELOPS
CENTRALIZED CONVECTION, AND RE-MOISTENS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TOWARD
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG STR POSITIONED OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA AND JAPAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION (RI), THEREFORE, TS 14W WILL INCREASE INTENSITY
FROM 65 KNOTS AT TAU 48 TO 95 KNOTS AT TAU 72, WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS PAST
OKINAWA. TS 14W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SHANGHAI, CHINA NEAR TAU
108 WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A 145NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST WITH A 280NM TO 450NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN GUIDANCE 
FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. BOTH THE HAFS-A AND GFS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF 
ON DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOWING A MOIST CORE COCOONED FROM THE
SURROUNDING DRY AIR AFTER TAU 36. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COAMPS-TC (GFS) CONTINUING TO PEAK THE INTENSITY 
AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AT TAU 96 WHILE HAFS-A PEAKS THE INTENSITY 
AT 107 KNOTS AT TAU 72. THE 110000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INTENSITY 
CHANGE PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A 60-80 PERCENT RI PROBABILITY 
FROM TAU 54 TO TAU 96, WHICH SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST 
PHILOSOPHY. THE JTWC PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE 
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECASTS WITH A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS. HOWEVER, 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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