WDIO31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.4N 67.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 90 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOW FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS 
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO MODERATE 15-20KT NORTHEASTERLY VWS. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCS 
IN THE EIR AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION AT THE LOW LEVELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 300530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 300530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 300530Z
   CIMSS DPRNT: 40 KTS AT 300500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING STR TOWARD THE GULF OF OMAN. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS IN-
PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, RELATIVE VWS WILL WEAKEN 
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 36, 
VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, THIS PLUS THE PERSISTENT INFLUX OF DRY 
AIR WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN
EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 68NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLIER
DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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